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IndustryOilGas15TuesdayJanuary212014Specialthankstoallthepeopleandorganizationslistedbelowwhocontributedtothesuccessofthe2013SingleParentsChristmasDinnerhostedbySutherlandHouse.FortSmithLegionBranch239MtisLocal50SmithsLandingFirstNationSaltRiverFirstNationFortSmithRCMPNorthernJournalWallysDrugstoreWoodBuffaloInnFreundsBuildingSuppliesBerrosFieldsStoresPelicanRapidsInnTDCYourhelphasbeengreatlyappreciatedATouchofHeavenWoodBuffaloInnWomensCorrectionsRiverRidgeHaroldGamblerMikeKeizerRonnieCindySchaeferLynetteBlesseGwendolynBlesseAmberFrankLachsmanJessicaTherrienSutherlandHouseStaffThankyouThefutureofCanadianpipelinesandprotestsExpertsforecastenergypolicymovesin2014NorthernJournalWhatarethenumbersshowingforoilandgasdrillinginAlbertalastyearIsthereanyindicationofaslowdownorfutureboomin2014PrechtDrillingisactuallyholdingupprettywell.Idonthavenalnumbersbutitlookslike2013maybestillafairlystrongyearandroughequivalentwithprecedingyears.LandsalenumbersfortheprovinceofAlbertaaresubstantivelydownandthatwouldbeindicationoffuturedrillingintentionsandalsoevaluationofanydiscoveriestheymightndfromthatdrilling.Itwouldsuggestthatdrillingcouldgodowninthefuture.NJWhatispossiblybehindthedropinlandsalesPrechtDemandforoilisnotgrowingintheWesterneconomiesandsupplyisgrowinginparticularinplacesliketheUnitedStatesandCanada.WherepreviouslythemarketwasdrivenbyAsiandemandthatiscontinuingbuteventhatisslowingdown.NJWhyPrechtOilpriceshavebeenhighforthebetterpartofadecadesothereisapriceeffect.Peoplewanttotryandeconomize.TheotherthingisindevelopedcountriesyoureachamaturityintermsofenergyconsumptionandyourejustnotconsumingasmuchTheJournalinterviewstwoexpertsoneinenergyeconomicsandanotherinpublicpolicytogaininsightintowhat2014couldbringforCanadianoilandgasproductionandgovernmentdecisionsinlightofincreasingFirstNationsprotests.PaulPrechtisanenergyeconomistandthefounderofPaulPrechtEnergyEconomicsbasedinEdmontonAlta.AndrPlourdeisthedeanoftheFacultyofPublicAffairsatCarletonUniversityinOttawa.ByMARIACHURCHPaulPrechtAndrPlourdeNorthernJournalHasFirstNationsandcivilprotestagainsttheoilandgasindustrybeennoticeablygrowingacrossthecountryPlourdeIthinkinasenseitsalwaysbeentherebutnowthereisaclearerfocus.Thereareprojectsthatarebeingconsideredwheretheissuesaremuchclearer.Theprecedentsandthecourtcaseshavebeenaccumulatingovertime.NJAnysweepingpredictionsforwhateffecttheincreasingpressurefromFirstNationswillhaveongovernmentpolicyconcerningtheoilindustryin2014PlourdeOverthecourseoftheyearIthinkweshouldexpectsomekindofdevelopmentonthefrontofrelationshipsbetweengovernmenttheoilandgasindustryandFirstNations.Ithinkthishasbeenbrewingforsometime.IthinkdevolutionintheNWTwillmakethisalmostinevitable.Thatsalmostthewrongwordbutitwillcreateanenvironmentwherethisissuewillneedtobeaddressedinsomesense.energyintermsofyourgenerallifestyleparticularlyoil.NJWhatdoesthatmeanforoilproducersPrechtImguessingthatsomeinvestorsmaybeseeingitthatwayaswellandthatmightaccountfortheslowdown.Maybewellevenseeslowdowninoilsands.Imtalkingaboutinvestmentandthatcouldeventuallyhaveimpactonproduction.Itwillbeinterestingtowatchthisyearintermsofhowactivitiesandinvestmentlevelshold.NJDoyouthinktherewillbeaneffectonCanadianpublicpolicyPrechtCertainlyCanadawillwanttoseethemarketstoAsiaopenedup.ThereisalotofgovernmentpolicypressuretowardsseeingthatNorthernGatewaypipelinebuilt.ItsbeenapprovedbytheNationalEnergyBoardandIhavenodoubtthatitwillbeapprovedbythegovernmentofCanadabutthereisstillanawfullotofsocialresistanceandFirstNationresistance.Havinggottentheseregulatoryapprovalsitsstillnotnecessaryaslamdunkinmymindthatitisnecessarilygoingtohappenyet.NJWhatareyourthoughtsonpipelinedevelopmentinCanadaPlourdeThereareprobablyfourprojectsonthegothatpeoplewillbepushingforKeystonethereversalofLine9BinsouthernOntarioEnergyEastandtheNorthernGateway.IdbesurprisedifwedidnthaveadecisiononKeystoneinthecourseofthenextyear.AdecisiononLine9willalsobecominginthenextyear.ImlesssureaboutEnergyEastandtheNorthernGatewaybecausetheyarelongerterm.NJDoFirstNationshaveashotataffectingthosedecisionsPlourdeThepoliticalenvironmentofthatissodifculttounderstand.CanwethinkofanysingleFirstNationashavingavetorightIfyousaynotonmylandevenifeverybodyelseagreeswillyouholdupaprojectIthinkinthecurrentenvironmentfromapublicpolicyperspectivethatissomethingpeoplearegoingtobeverysensitiveaboutbecausewedonthaveagoodunderstandingofwhattheactualobligationsarefromalegalperspective.NJIsthatbecausetherearenoclearprecedentsPlourdeInpart.IthinkifIwerepushingforaparticularpolicydirectionitwouldbeforthefederalgovernmenttogetabetterunderstandingofwhatthecourtsthinktheseobligationsare.Fromapublicpolicyperspectivethatisreallyimportant.NJIsthatsomethingthatcouldhappenin2014PlourdeIdontthinksothatissomethingthatwillbelongterm.Ithinkitwillbuild.Ithinkwewillbemuchmoreawareofissueslikethatoverthecourseoftheyear.