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TuesdayJanuary2020157ENVIRONMENTCLIMATECHANGEAndreAirutAnyoneknowingthewhereaboutsofpleasecontactAnnieBellemareat613747-7800ext.2058.JamesQavavauqAnyoneknowingthewhereaboutsofpleasecontactAnnieBellemareat613747-7800ext.2058.SpreadingsouthernwetlandsdryingdeltalakesscientistspredictthefutureofawarmerNWTByMEAGANWOHLBERGThawingpermafrostandchangesinwaterlevelscausedbyawarmingclimatearewreak-inghavocontheNorthernlandscapeaccordingtotwohydrologistsworkingintheNWTwhosaythedramaticshiftsimpactingtheentireMackenziebasincouldholdseriousimplicationsforbothanimalsandhumanlifeontheland.Drs.WilliamQuintonandPhilipMarshbothCanadaResearchChairsincoldregionswateratWilfridLaurierUniversitypresentedsomeoftheirndingstotheNWTpubliclastweekatLedgeTalksanongoinglectureserieshostedattheLegislativeAssemblyinYellowknife.SpeakingtoTheJournalbyphoneQuintonsharedndingsfromhisresearchonperma-frostthawinthesouthernpartoftheterritorywhichshowastartling70percentdecreaseinpermafrostintheFortSimpsonregionbetween1947and2008.ThosefrontlinesofthawingQuintonsaidareareascomposedofdiscontinuousperma-frostthatexistaspatchyforestedislandssur-roundedbywetlands.Astheclimatewarmshesfoundthatthepermafrostisdisappearingturningmoreandmoreforestintowetlandwithjust43percentofpermafroststillintactintheLiardRivervalley.NotonlyhasthemeltingmeantlessblackspruceforestandmorewetlandswhichholdsimplicationsforlocalplantsandwildlifebutthelossofpermafrostisactuallychangingtheentirerivernetworkQuintonsaid.Thischangingofforestsintowetlandsoftenmeansthewaythelandcover-howthesedrain-agebasinsstoreandconveywatertothebasinoutlet-changeshesaid.Thebalanceofthewatercycleischanging.RecordsshowriverlevelsarerisingacrosstheNWTandthoughwaterfrommeltedper-mafrostmakesupasmallpercentageofthatincreaseintheFortSimpsonareaitcouldntaccountforthetotaladdedvolume.ThatswhenQuintondiscovereditwasthelandscapechangesandnotthemeltedwateritselfthatwereactu-allyresponsiblefordumpingmorewaterintotheriversystem.Whatwevefoundisthispermafrostthaw-inducedlandcoverchangeisactuallycausingagreateramountofdrainagebasinstocontrib-uterunoffhesaid.Decadesagotherewerelargepartsofthelandscapethatwerekindofimpoundedbehindpermafrost...Waterlandinginthoseareasdidntowitjuststayedthere.Nowwithpermafrostthawthoseareasareopeningupandabletocontributetothedrain-agenetworkandhelptheriversrise.Thoughitsdifculttopredicthowmuchandhowquicklythepermafrostwillcontinuetodis-appearQuintonsaiditscertainthatthawingwillaccelerateovertimeastheforestbecomesmoreandmorefragmentedbywetlands-atrendthatcanbeseenelsewhereinCanada-andthatwillcreatemanychallengesforbothwildlifeandpeoplewhetheritbethroughhabi-tatlossorinfrastructurechallenges.Theresjustalotofuncertaintyinachang-inghydrologicalenvironment.Thathascom-munityimplicationsithascostsgovernmentchallenges-thattypeofthingQuintonsaid.ChangingwaterlevelsintheMackenzieDeltaWarmingtemperaturesarealsoimpactingthelandscapefurthernorthintheMackenzieDeltaregionoftheNWTwhereMarshhasbeenconductingresearchsince1983.Warmerwintershavemeantthepeakwaterlevelsthataccompanythespringmeltareoc-curringearlierandearlierinthedelta.Thosepeaklevelsarealsodecreasingduetoade-clineinsnowfallandicethicknessmeaninglessoodingforthemorehighlyelevatedlakesthatsupplyhabitatformuskratandwaterfowl.Iflakesarentoodedfrequentlyenoughthosehigherelevatedperchedbasinswilldis-appearMarshsaid.WhethertheoodingisdecreasedenoughyetthatthoselakeswillstartdisappearingIdontknow.Simultaneouslylowerelevatedlakesarebeingoodedmoreoftenasstormsurgesin-creasealongthecoasttypicallybeginninginlateJuneaddingcomplexitytothestory.Asspringcreepsupthecalendareachyearthosestormscouldstarthappeningearlierwreakinghavoconcoastalbirdssensitivenestingseasonswhichusuallyoccurinthefewweeksbeforetheseaicebreaksupandstartsooding.Anythingthatchangesthewaterlevelre-gimelikeiftheBeauforticeopensupearlierandyouhavestormsurgesoccurringearlierintothatbirdnestinghabitatthatwouldhavehugeimpactsonthebirdshesaid.Warmingisalsochangingthelandscapefur-thertotheeastbetweenInuvikandTuktoyaktukwheretherehasbeena20percentincreaseinshrubsgrowingonthetundrainrecenthistory.Marshsaidthenewvegetationishavingasignicantimpactonthewatershedbyaccu-mulatingandshadingthesnowwhichdelaysthespringmelt.ThatndinginparticularcameasasurpriseMarshsaidandhighlightsthechallengesoftryingtomakescienticpredic-tionsabouttheenvironmentinatimeofcli-matechange.Thingslikethestreamowsnotbehavinglikewewouldexpecttellsusweneedtodoabetterjobdevelopinghydrologicpredictivetoolssowecanusethemforunderstandingthefutureforpeopleforecosystemsandfordevelopinglargeinfrastructureprojectshesaid.QuintonandMarshsresearchispartofanongoingpartnershiponwaterscienceestab-lishedbetweentheGNWTandWilfridLaurier.WilliamQuintonandhisteamofstudentsgetsreadyfor2014eldworkattheScottyCreeksiteintheLiardRivervalleyaround50kmsouthofFortSimpson.PhilipMarshsetsupadataloggerusedtorecordhydrologicalandmeteorologicalin-strumentsduringspringmeltatTrailValleyCreekawatershed50kmnorthofInuvik.PhotocourtesyofPhilipMarshPhotocourtesyofWilliamQuinton